The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is the supreme decision-making body that established an international environmental accord to address climate change. The UNFCCC meets annually to discuss and measure progress as well as challenges made in addressing climate change through a convention known as the Conference of the Parties (COP). As we eagerly anticipate COP28, Lehlogonolo Mashego, Sustainability Manager for Risk Advisory Services at BDO South Africa reflects on the background of COP, the outcomes of COP27, the hopes for COP28, and three key themes that are high on the agenda for discussion.
The first meeting of COP took place in 1995 in Berlin, Germany, marking the inception of a global effort to combat climate change. Since then, these annual gatherings have evolved into a critical forum where governments, scientists, activists, and industry leaders discuss strategies to limit global warming and adapt to the consequences of climate change.
While we recognise the pivotal value COP has played in raising awareness about the climate crisis and inspiring action, the road to achieving meaningful, lasting change has been rocky. The last conference, COP27, held in 2022, was no exception. COP27, hosted in Egypt, aimed to build on the Paris Agreement's objectives and develop more concrete actions for mitigating climate change. Several key topics were on the agenda, such as enhancing national climate commitments, addressing loss and damage, and accelerating the transition to clean energy.
The outcomes of COP27 were met with mixed feelings. Breakthroughs were made for climate justice and climate diplomacy, with countries successfully securing a long-awaited agreement to establish a suite of finance arrangements. This includes a new "loss and damage" mechanism to aid poor economies suffering from the disastrous effects of climate change. The historic decision to establish a fund to respond to loss and damage was the highlight of COP27. It is an important milestone since it comes after nearly three decades of advocacy and establishes a precedent for climate justice. However, COP27 also faced criticism for failing to secure a comprehensive agreement on loss and damage. Developing nations, which are disproportionately affected by the adverse consequences of climate change, pushed for more extensive support and compensation for the losses they have endured. This issue remains a contentious point in international climate negotiations.
Hopes for COP28
As we approach COP28, there is both optimism and apprehension. The climate crisis is becoming increasingly urgent, with more frequent and severe extreme weather events, rising sea levels, and other alarming consequences. The global community has high expectations for this conference as it further presents an opportunity to address critical issues and accelerate climate action.
The Just Energy Transition (JET)
One of the most significant themes of COP28 is the Just Energy Transition (JET). This concept emphasises the need to transition to clean energy sources that also promote economic development.
It recognises the importance of creating fair and equitable pathways to sustainable development within the energy sector. This topic is especially pertinent in a South African context as a developing nation with vast opportunities for sustainable energy generation.
While developing nations continue to be on the back foot, South Africa has responded to this by developing a Just Energy Transition Investment Plan (JET IP) for the five-year period 2023 – 2027. This plan outlines the investment needs to meet the decarbonisation targets within the country in the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), which lays out the rate at which South Africa plans to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and further contribute to the Paris Agreement goals.
As a response to this plan, a Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) was signed by South Africa, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the United States, and the European Union at the COP26 Climate Summit in 2021. The JETP’s primary aim is raising an initial sum of $8.5 billion to aid South Africa in implementing its JET IP. While the objectives of this partnership are clearly outlined, key aspects to consider are related to implementation efficiencies and monitoring concerns associated with the roll-out.
Climate Finance
Another critical theme for COP28 is climate finance, other associated terms include loss and damage, climate reparations, grants and loans. Developed nations have a moral and legal obligation to provide financial assistance to less economically advanced nations, as these countries are often the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and need to mitigate and adapt.
COP28 must establish a clear framework for delivering the promised $100 billion per year in climate finance to developing countries. Additionally, discussions will focus on increasing financial support beyond the initial commitment to address the growing needs for climate adaptation and resilience. Key aspects of concern are based on holding major emitters accountable for historic emissions and current climate-fuelled disasters, as well as the legal obligations that funders would be bound to.
The success of COP28 depends on the ability to mobilise financial resources and ensure that they are distributed fairly and efficiently to the countries that need them most. Without adequate climate finance, many developing nations will continue struggling to meet their climate goals and adapt to the changing climate.
The Global Stock Take
Lastly, the third key topic to be discussed is centred around the Global Stock Take (GST) which is an essential component of the Paris Agreement's transparency and accountability framework. It provides a mechanism for periodically assessing collective progress toward the agreement's long-term goals. This exercise of tracking and monitoring is fundamental in determining the efficiencies presented as a means of fulfilling the decarbonisation commitments and determining whether we are collectively on track to meet these goals.
COP28 will focus on defining the rules and methodologies for conducting the GST. The GST's outcomes will help refine future climate actions and commitments which is a key anticipated takeaway.
A robust and effective GST is essential for maintaining transparency and accountability in the global response to climate change. It ensures that nations are held accountable for their commitments, enabling them to adjust their strategies where necessary.
What does this mean for South Africa?
South Africa and many other developing nations require substantial climate funding in light of the insufficient funds to independently introduce climate action solutions. Some analysts highlight that an estimated $250 billion over the next three decades would be required to move South Africa's economy into greener energy generation.
According to Bloomberg, South African Minister of Forestry, Fisheries and Environmental Affairs (DFFE), Barbara Creecy, said she expects the long-delayed implementation plan for an $8.5 billion investment into a climate pact with some of the world’s richest nations to be completed by the COP28 summit. This type of investment through the JETP would ensure sufficient funding to kick-start South Africa’s shift to greener practices and general energy generation. The success of this is yet to be seen, with further delays observed on implementation.
Looking forward
While there is much to anticipate leading up to COP28, we are further presented with the opportunity for the international community to come together and address the climate crisis in a comprehensive and equitable manner. To achieve meaningful progress, the establishment of a robust framework for the GST and action plan are fundamental at this year’s COP.
To reiterate, the future of our world is at stake, and the decisions made at COP28 will have far-reaching implications. It is time for our leaders to regroup and refine their commitments to fight climate change, essentially working together to create a sustainable and equitable future for all. The success of COP28 is not just a matter of international policy; it is a matter of global survival.